A view of a crowded Chinese market in Manila, February 19, 2021. Photo: Stel/Unsplash
- The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation has predicted that Western Pacific countries could sustain a major COVID-19 wave in April.
- This is not hard to believe considering the test positivity rates in countries in these region – from 20% in Thailand to 47.8% in Laos.
- This said, almost 60% cases of COVID-19 are currently from Europe, where many countries have dropped restrictions and are returning to normal.
New Delhi: The world is going to witness another peak of COVID-19 infections in April, the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has projected.
Researchers at the institute, an independent health research body in the US, suggest that the Western Pacific region will be the biggest contributor.
This isn’t surprising: this reported a 20% increase in COVID-19 cases last week. The major countries in this region are Australia, New Zealand, China, South Korea, Mongolia and Malaysia.
It is currently reporting a little more than 400 deaths per day. According to IHME, this may go up to more than 5,000 by the end of March. The number of cases is also expected to rise exponentially, from 1.08 million to 40 million.
Such a surge will strain health systems. Currently, the number of beds needed to treat COVID-19 patients in this region is 1 lakh. The projected need is about 13 lakh.
Usually, the rise of a new variant leads to new waves. And the waves end after a peak in the outbreak trajectory.
However, the IHME’s forecast is based on the existing dominant variant, omicron.
In the Western Pacific region, South Korea is currently registering fewer than 100 new deaths everyday. This could go up to more than 200 by mid-March. According to The Guardian, the country has abandoned its ‘test, treat and track policy’, and has relaxed restrictions. Most people getting tested today are older than 60 years, and the current test positivity rate (TPR) is 18%.
In fact, the TPR data for the region provides a concise snapshot of how bad things already are.
According to Our World in Data, Laos has a TPR of 47.8%. Japan 45.16%, Vietnam 38%, Philippines 28%, Australia 26% and Thailand 20%. Only New Zealand has a TPR lower than 5% – a threshold the WHO considers desirable. Anything greater than 5% is supposed to be a sign that the epidemic is out of control.
The IHME forecast and Our World in Data don’t have data from Hong Kong, but news reports suggest the country may currently be going through the worst of its COVID-19 epidemic.
Europe
Almost 60% cases of COVID-19 are currently from Europe.
According to Our World in Data, Norway and Albania have TPRs of 70% – the highest in the region. In Sweden, this is 60% and 40-60% in Ukraine, the Netherlands, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Germany. In fact, not a single country in the entire European region has a TPR lower than 5%.
However, most European countries have ended their COVID-19 restrictions, allowing business and entertainment activities to resume to their fullest. Those who contract an infection only have to stay at home for four days. Entering these countries doesn’t require negative RT-PCR reports.
In Sweden, the government has abolished physical distancing measures and vaccine passport requirements. There is no limit on the number of people who can gather in one place. On February 1, Denmark became the first country in Europe to drop all containment measures.
The UK is also expected to lift all checks this week. Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the BBC on February 20 that tests will be conducted at a slower pace. The country will also not legally mandate those who test positive to self-isolate. “Now is the moment for everybody to get their confidence back,” Johnson said, adding that he will rely solely on vaccines hence.
However, Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme, said at a press conference on February 1, 2022:
“My greatest fear at the moment, to be quite honest is that countries have a lemming syndrome now and they all chase to open up, and they open up on the basis that the country next door opened and the problem is they don’t have the same situation, they don’t have the same vaccine coverage, they don’t have a strong health system.”
In a social media interaction on February 16, Ryan also said he was worried about testing rates having dropped significantly in the last few weeks. Both him and Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s technical lead on COVID-19, have also cautioned governments against easing restrictions too soon, to give in to political pressure.
Will these countries heed this advice?
If they don’t, and if the IHME’s projections hold true, the world may have another major COVID-19 wave at the start of summer 2022.